This report is now superseded by Preliminary Report 1.2

SOOLE Preliminary Report 1.0

This is the first report (dated 21/07/22) for the Oxford Brookes University SOOLE project (Surveying Opinion On Local Energy) on wind turbine opinions. Future reports will be available here.

What did we already know?

Wind power is popular in principle amongst a majority of people in the UK, with previous polls by YouGov and the UK Government for example showing around 80% support. This is not widely known, however – one ComRes poll found that most people strongly underestimate the levels of support shown by other people. A poll by Opinium suggests that most people would be happy to have wind turbines “in their local area.” These observations are not intended to minimise the importance of the concerns of wind turbine opponents, which are often based on understandable and deeply held feelings about preserving the countryside.

What does the SOOLE survey add to this?

Most existing surveys ask people non-specific questions about support in principle, rather than asking about specific project proposals for their local area. It could be that opposition to local wind turbines increases when people see further details of a local wind turbine plan (another academic survey by Jones and Eiser has further details and data on this issue). SOOLE surveys people about specific ideas for wind turbines in their local area. In our survey, participants see a description of a potential wind turbine project for their local area, including specific location and a picture of how it would look. Some projects are based on existing proposals (for example previous planning permission applications) and some are plausible but made-up suggestions we created. We have surveyed concerning five different such projects at sites in Oxfordshire (Upper Heyford), Berkshire and Hampshire (Greenham Common), Buckinghamshire (near High Wycombe), and Dorset (near Dorchester and also in north Dorset).

After seeing the wind turbine project description, participants are asked “Would you most likely now oppose or support the building of this particular wind turbine project?” Overall, 79% supported and 19% opposed their specific local wind turbine project. With the sample size of 473 participants, the margin of error is about 3.5%. Responses at the five different sites (broken down by different sub-areas for four sites) are as follows:

Can you give some more detail?

We selected sites in England mainly on the basis that wind turbines might plausibly be built there (if planning regulations were liberalised, a possibility when we started to survey).
For information on all sites that we have identified for potential survey, with selection criteria, statuses, maps, and details on how we deliver invitations to all residences near each site, see here.
A full description of our survey (all questions) is here.
The above table broken down by strong and weak support and opposition is here.
For some sites the most recent leaflets were delivered less than a week ago, which is why some response percentages are left out in the above table – many people haven’t yet had a chance to respond, so the number would not be very meaningful.

What is the main weakness of this data?

Does this represent the full range of opinion in the surveyed areas? What if people who answer surveys are more likely to oppose or support local wind turbines than those who don’t? We can’t be sure about how representative the sample is, but we have some clues. These clues suggest that our result is either about right, or over-estimating opposition to wind turbines:

We looked at two (so far) personal traits known to predict wind turbine support and opposition. Of those who revealed their vote in the last election, 45% voted Conservative. Further, most participants who revealed their age are over 45. These are higher proportions of older people and of Conservative voters than seen in the general population (even for the sampled areas), and both these traits would tend to (slightly) bias our sample towards increased opposition.
We asked participants if they thought our invitation leaflet looked biased or neutral, and 64% thought it looked neutral, with only 6% thinking it looked more than slightly biased in favour of wind turbines, and only 2% thinking it looked more than slightly biased against. We probably aren’t creating much bias with our invitation method.
These results are roughly in line with in-principle support measures in other surveys (listed earlier) that used market-research sampling methods that are better at achieving representative samples.

None of this is water-tight – it’s very difficult to get opinion data that perfectly reflects a population.

What can we make of this?

SOOLE takes a neutral position on wind turbines, but wants communities to get what they want (this position is roughly in line with current government aims). Based on this survey and other data, it seems large majorities do tend to want wind turbines – but promoters of wind-power need to think carefully about what this means. Being in the minority does not mean the concerns of opponents are not valid, and the way forward lies in respectful dialogue. SOOLE suggests that (1) promoters of wind projects consider ways to respectfully address the concerns of opponents (concerns measured by SOOLE will be detailed in a later report); (2) opponents of wind turbines consider how to convincingly demonstrate alternative ways to meet energy needs with renewables, as rapidly as the climate emergency requires.

How can SOOLE help you further?

We are keen to hear from more individuals and organisations with an interest in wind turbines in their local area (promoting or opposing), because we can help by providing further information on local opinion. When there is a real local project (even a potential or past one) we can get even better data and communities can get more use from it.

There’s a great deal more the SOOLE data can tell us (this report focused on answers to just one survey question), which we’ll return to in future reports. Hopefully in September, the whole SOOLE data-set (subject to simplifications to ensure participant anonymity) will be made fully public.

SOOLE is just me (Ben Kenward, Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Oxford Brookes University) and a colleague from the Oxford Brookes School of the Built Environment (focused on site selection), assisted by numerous informal advisors (mainly academic colleagues), and a team of volunteers to whom I’m very grateful (my students and local residents). Because our core team is small, when I’m on holiday, we can't assist with anything, not even send paper surveys or answer emails. I'll be on holiday from next week, for most of August. But the survey will remain open, and questions and requests that come in during that period will be answered on my return. I’ll do my best to quickly answer questions I receive in the 48 hours after publication of this report, and answer the remainder on my return.

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